Till recently, whenever I chatted with my friends in the media and academics in Lucknow and Delhi, many of them used to insist that Rahul Gandhi’s travels in dalit villages and sharing meals with them would not have any effect on the dalit electorate. Mayawati too said as much, terming Rahul’s gesture as ‘nautanki’. When the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family visited Bhatta-Parsaul villages near Noida in May to show solidarity with farmers protesting land acquisition, the media did not attach much importance to his intervention.

However, my reading differs from that of these scholars, journalists and politicians. When I toured various villages of central and eastern UP to study the popular politics of democracy, I found the villagers of all castes had a strong attraction for him. I believe this attraction has been converting into electoral support for the past couple of months. More and more observers have started to think that there might be a strong revival of the Congress in the UP elections, even as they are not sure about how much of it will convert into seats.

Let me share some of my observations after visiting various villages of UP. After two days of Rahul’s visit to Mallipur and Harsingpur of Mirzapur, we did an impact analysis in these villages. We found people had developed a strong liking for the young MP. An old woman belonging to a middle caste told us that ‘Sonia’s bitwa’ was like the legendary king who became a yogi after observing the sorrows of the people and wandered from village to village. In Indian village folklore, a yogi signifies a person who has sacrificed everything.

In those two villages, I observed that not only the upper castes but also several lower and marginalised castes like Kurmi, Bharbhuja, Kol, Bansor, Pasi, Dhanuk, Tatwa and Rangrej had started placing more trust in Rahul than any other political leader. They saw him as an honest leader and felt that all leaders should learn from him how to interact with people — he came straight to them without letting police or local politicians come in the way. He spoke directly with the people and shared their joys and sorrows, like one of their kith and kin.

In November, when a Muslim boy drowned in a river in Chilh village of Mirzapur, which has a majority of Muslims and SCs, Rahul made it a point to meet his family. The victim’s mother told us that Rahul did not make a show of formality, but showed his concern for all the problems faced by the family.

We visited a basti, adjacent to the Ravidas temple in Varanasi and known as Ravidasia basti Kshirgoverdhanpur, immediately after Rahul’s visit. The Ravidasia Chamars and Yadavs are dominant in this neighbourhood. The Ravidasia Chamars who are in majority used to be a strong vote bank for BSP. There, a man running a grocery shop told us that once upon a time they used to support the Congress, but shifted their loyalty after the advent of the BSP. After Rahul’s visit, they were renewing their ties with the Congress.

A youngster, standing nearby and overhearing our conversation, remarked that Rahul was a wonderful leader. “He came straight to us and had tea with us in a kulhar, just like us,” he said. “Is there any other leader today who does this? They talk of security reasons but doesn’t Rahul have any fear of security breach? He went straight to the Ravidas temple without informing anyone, stayed there for an hour, interacted with people there and then left.”

An old woman said they might vote for the BSP this time but they would press the button for Rahul in the national elections.

Rahul’s Bhatta-Parsaul visit also helped stop the police action on farmers affected by land acquisition and carried their voices forward. During a discussion at the Jatav basti in Bhatta-Parsaul they told us that most of the castes, including the Jatavs, voted for the BSP in the last elections, but this time hardly anyone except them would support the ruling party.

It is precisely this, raising issues like land acquisition, fight for the forests and protecting the dignity of women, that has helped create a radical, pro-people image for Rahul, even though he is in the Congress, which leads the ruling coalition at the centre. He is crafting this image of an alternative leader by reaching out to people and sharing their joys and sorrows after shedding authority and formalities. He also talks about providing education and jobs to the next generation and healthcare for all.

For a while, he toyed with the image of an angry young man to outsmart the aggressive image of rival politicians. However, the one image which has helped him touch the hearts is that of a leader dedicated to and concerned about development.

The backwards among the backwards and the dalits among the dalits are now being represented in the Congress through their support for Rahul Gandhi. The concern of Rahul for the extremely backward Muslims castes like weavers, Tatwa, Rangrej, Rahin and Ansari and the launching of various development projects for them are also helping to link the Congress with these castes.

We did a random study of a Congress rally on November 14, 2011 organised at Trivenipuram, Jhusi, Allahabad. This was officially the first rally of the party ahead of the elections. Our respondents belonged to the upper caste, backward and scheduled castes/scheduled tribes. Fifty percent respondents were from the backward castes, 30 percent from the upper castes (Brahmins and Bhumihar) and the remaining belonged to SCs/STs. Among the SCs, majority of the people who turned up were Pasi, Sonkar, Saroj, Chamar, Hela and Valmiki. The backward castes were mainly Patel, Kurmi, Bind and Yadav.

It was very obvious from our study that Rahul’s image of an honest, dedicated and hardworking leader is emerging among the people of every caste and class. Rahul’s speech touched the hearts of many OBCs and SCs. They said now they felt an intimate bond with “Rahulji”. Due to this bond, a kind of political shift was visible in the SC and OBC communities which were a strong base for the BSP and the Samajwadi Party. Of course, it is still difficult to say how they will vote in the elections.

We surveyed Rahul’s rallies in two reserved assembly constituencies, Mehnagar and Lalganj of Azamgarh district on January 10. Most of the people who participated in the rally went there to have a glimpse of the charismatic leader and listen to his speech. Around half of the assembled crowd was those who had decided to vote for the Congress  and the remaining were those who were yet to make up their mind or supported another party. But after listening to Rahul’s speech around 20 percent of them were mobilised in favour of the Congress.

Bhalchandra Yadav, a 35-year-old SP supporter from Lalganj, said immediately after the meeting: “After listening to Rahul, I feel I’d vote only for him (the Congress).”

Among the people returning from the rally, one could overhear the murmur that though Rahul spoke very well but the caste factor was going to dominate the voting pattern in UP, as has been the trend all these years. But some people disagreed. Vanshraj, a 30-year-old man from Rajbhar caste, of Srikantpur said, “The influence of caste will break this time. People are bored of the caste-class identity politics. Now they need a new thinking which Rahul will deliver.”
We observed that Rahul’s speech had left even Chamars among dalits and Yadavs among OBCs, who are considered ‘pakke pani ka vote’ (firm voters) for BSP and SP respectively, think again about their commitments.

From these observations at the grassroots level, one can conclude that in democracy the image of a leader plays an important role and Rahul has not only created the right image but has also taken it to the common people. However, we will have to wait to see how much this image helps the Congress in the number of votes. 

This was first published in the February 1-15 issue of the Governance Now magazine.