Tiger to outpace dragon by 2013?

American magazine the Economist says by 2013 India will overtake China in growth rate.

trithesh

Trithesh Nandan | October 5, 2010



India will make up for the 'lost decade' when it comes to keeping abreast with China in three years - or so predicts a leading American journal.

The Economist, in its latest cover story, predicts that India will outpace China by 2013. In "How India's growth will outpace China's", largely builds on the Indian government's growth projection of 8.5 percent for the current fiscal year - which the Asian Development Bank recently seconded. The ADB had earlier predicted a 8.2 percent growth, and revised it subsequently.

But these two figures are conservative compared to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prediction which in July it had put India’s growth in 2010 at 9.5 percent.

So, how long will it really be before the the Indian tiger tames the Chinese dragon? The Economist says “It (India) has a long way to go before it is as rich as China - the Chinese economy is four times bigger- but its growth rate could overtake China’s by 2013, if not before.”

The report also states that India's demography will play out to the country's advantage, partcularly because has a huge youth (below 30 years of age) population.

"India is now blessed with a young and growing workforce. Its dependency ratio - the proportion of children and old people to working-age adults - is one of the best in the world and will remain so for a generation.”

The magazine also celebrates India’s brand of capitalism. “India’s individualistic brand of capitalism may also be more robust than China’s state-directed sort.” At the same, time the magazine also warned India’s against unemployable workforce and wobbling infrastructure.

“Indian capitalism is driven by millions of entrepreneurs furiously doing ahead with this task, and thriving small businesses with many world-class ones whose English-speaking bosses network confidently with the global elite,” the magazine added.

The magazine was also upbeat about the Indian democracy. “Ideas flow easily around India, since it lacks China’s culture of secrecy and censorship. That, plus China’s rampant piracy, is why knowledge-based industries such as software love India but shun the middle kingdom,” it says.
 
The Economist also noted “Given the choice between doing business in China or India, most foreign investors would probably pick China,” but the magazine further predicts “As the global economy becomes more knowledge-intensive, India's advantage will grow.”

Morgan Stanley too predicted in its report released last month India would match China’s GDP growth of around 8.5-9.5 per cent over the next two years. “Over the next 10 years, India’s growth is expected to outpace China’s and India’s per-capita income to reach China’s 2009 levels of $3,750 over the next 10-11 years,” the report added.

In the recent years, India has been a preferred location for the relative politcical stability it offers, says the magazine. "India can change governments without a revolution. In the long run, that may offer a better guarantee of the stability that businesses crave," it holds.

Comments

 

Other News

What really happened in ‘The Scam That Shook a Nation’?

The Scam That Shook a Nation By Prakash Patra and Rasheed Kidwai HarperCollins, 276 pages, Rs 399 The 1970s were a

Report of India’s G20 Task Force on Digital Public Infrastructure released

The final ‘Report of India’s G20 Task Force on Digital Public Infrastructure’ by ‘India’s G20 Task Force on Digital Public Infrastructure for Economic Transformation, Financial Inclusion and Development’ was released in New Delhi on Monday. The Task Force was led by the

How the Great War of Mahabharata was actually a world war

Mahabharata: A World War By Gaurang Damani Sanganak Prakashan, 317 pages, Rs 300 Gaurang Damani, a Mumbai-based el

Budget expectations, from job creation to tax reforms…

With the return of the NDA to power in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, all eyes are now on finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s full budget for the FY 2024-25. The interim budget presented in February was a typical vote-on-accounts, allowing the outgoing government to manage expenses in

How to transform rural landscapes, design 5G intelligent villages

Futuristic technologies such as 5G are already here. While urban users are reaping their benefits, these technologies also have a potential to transform rural areas. How to unleash that potential is the question. That was the focus of a workshop – “Transforming Rural Landscape:

PM Modi visits Rosatom Pavilion at VDNKh in Moscow

Prime minister Narendra Modi, accompanied by president Vladimir Putin, visited the All Russian Exhibition Centre, VDNKh, in Moscow Tuesday. The two leaders toured the Rosatom Pavilion at VDNKh. The Rosatom pavilion, inaugurated in November 2023, is one of the largest exhibitions on the histo

Visionary Talk: Amitabh Gupta, Pune Police Commissioner with Kailashnath Adhikari, MD, Governance Now


Archives

Current Issue

Opinion

Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter