As the situation in Andhra Pradesh reaches a boiling point with a cauldron of repressed anger against the formation of Telangana threatening to reach a point of no return, one set of politicians who have perhaps lost more sleep due to anxiety than any other are the 82 Congress MLAs from Seemandhra regions.

For these Congress leaders, it’s now a simple question of loyalty: loyalty towards the party, which has given the green signal to creation of India’s 29th state, or towards the people, who have hit the streets in almost all cities and towns to oppose the state’s bifurcation? The mental struggle is becoming more troubling in light of talks about a resolution to be debated in the Andhra Pradesh assembly over the state’s bifurcation.

Seemandhra – as coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema regions are jointly called – leaders are now banking on AP Congress affairs in-charge Digvijay Singh’s statement that the draft bill of the state’s bifurcation has to be sent to the assembly for a debate as per the constitution.

READ ON THE 'POWERLESS' SITUATION IN SEEMANDHRA: Seemandhra power crisis now hits Hyderabad

Leaders from Seemaandhra regions believe this is one last opportunity to block the Centre’s bifurcation plans. In Andhra Pradesh’s house of 294 MLAs, 175 belong to Rayalaseema and coastal AP, while the remaining 119 are from Telangana. Even though 17 MLAs stand disqualified, Seemanndhra still has 158 members – significantly more than their counterparts in Telangana.

At heart, however, the question doing the rounds these days in a state which has seen widespread violence still remains the same: will all 82 MLAs of Congress from Seemandhra follow the party high command’s stand or bow to popular demand?

While the union cabinet’s note and details provided by the group of ministers (GoM) have not said anything specific on the resolution issue, union minister for science and technology S Jaipal Reddy, who comes from Andhra Pradesh, has said that the state legislative assembly does not need to pass a resolution to bifurcate a state. "I am not giving a political clarification, but only a constitutional clarification.... As per the constitution, no resolution is required – only the relevant Bill needs to be sent to the state assembly," he said.

This has created further confusion among politicians.

Meanwhile, it appears that neither the Congress nor its advisors foresaw the repercussions of the bifurcation move: all 13 Seemandhra districts are burning, and there was a complete power shutdown in many districts beginning late October 6 or the morning of October 7, with curfew slapped in at least one major town – Vizianagaram – following widespread violence.

But why are people from Seemandhra resisting the formation of Telangana?

It is deeply linked to a few ground realities in the state:

• Investments in irrigation and real estate projects in and around Hyderabad.
• Future access to Godavari water for the industrial corridor.
• For the middle class, fear of losing urban and globally connected employment opportunities in Hyderabad.
• Government jobs in Hyderabad.
• Future access to the river’s waters on which the coastal region’s industries are heavily dependent.

With the rise of Jaganmohan Reddy, Congress chances looked bleak in Seemandhra even as the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) held its fort strongly in the Telangana region. The Congress won 33 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats from the state in 2009 elections, which played a major role in the formation of UPA-II. Even in 2004, Congress’s basket was quite full: the party won 29 seats from AP.

But with the party’s future looking bleak in AP – due largely to misgovernance and the death of chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, a regional satrap who played the biggest role in the good showing in AP – political pundits believe the party realised it had no hope in Seemandhra. To cut the losses, the party wanted to play the Telangana card with a hope that the TRS would back them and help the party win a huge chunk if not all 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana region (the remaining 25 of AP’s 42 Lok Sabha seats are in Seemandhra).

CONGRESS GAME PLAN
Target TDP: According to political analysts, the first to get hit was the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which was threatening to stage a comeback on the plank of development. TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu, who had written to the union home ministry in support of Telangana, hoping that the government would not dare bifurcate the state, received a rude shock with the latest developments. His party has lost ground in Seemandhra now, as the Congress has claimed that it took a decision to carve out Telangana only after getting a nod from the TDP.

In Telangana, too, Naidu lost credibility by taking a U-turn again.

Target Jagan: Another political gain the Congress scored was targeting YSR Congress president YS Jaganmohan Reddy, whose stocks are steadily on the rise, as seen in multiple by-elections held over the last couple of years. He, too, had written a letter to the Centre in the past, stating that he was not opposed to Telangana. And when the Centre finally took the decision to divide the state, Jagan quickly changed tack, thereby leaving the field open for the Congress (along with TRS) in Telangana.

YSR Congress, thus, has now restricted itself only to Seemandhra.

Though Jagan announced that he would continue his fight to keep the state united – he began an indefinite fast in Hyderabad on October 5 to press home the issue – it would have little impact on the Centre. The Congress knows that if the UPA comes to power for a third time, Jagan would have no choice but to be a part of it, or at least lend its support.

Target BJP: The BJP was hoping to gain a foothold in Telangana by espousing the statehood cause. The party, though, doesn’t have much say in AP politics, and even Narendra Modi’s entry in the game – he held a huge rally in Hyderabad on August 11 – has given it little hope in Andhra Pradesh.

Target TRS: According to Congress’s game plan, the TRS would lose its relevance once Telangana is formed. The party believes TRS would have no option but to either support or merge with it.

DISADVANTAGE FOR CONGRESS

The biggest disadvantage for the ruling party on account of formation of Telangana is that it cannot recover in Seemandhra – at least in immediate future.
In fact, such is the desperate state that some Congress leaders from Seemandhra –Vundavalli Arun Kumar, Lagadapati Rajagopal and Rayapati Sambasiva Rao, among others – are contemplating quitting Congress and floating a separate political outfit to retain their identity.

With chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy openly questioning the Centre’s decision to bifurcate the state without addressing concerns of the people in Seemandhra, many AP Congress leaders have taken the opportunity to raise voice against Reddy. As state Congress president Botsa Satyanarayan has backed the high command’s decision, political analysts believe he may be clearing the decks to make his case for the CM’s position once Seemandhra is created.

But Satyanarayan, said to be a strong Kapu community leader from Vizainagaram, is facing a tough time even on home turf. Curfew was clamped in Vizainagaram on October 5 when protestors attacked his property and widespread violence was reported from across the town. Locals believe as the state Congress chief he didn’t voice his opinion against the high command’s decision on Telangana.

Another set of Congress leaders in Telangana, including Jana Reddy, is also vocal against the CM since loyalty towards the party high command at this stage is expected to pave way for the CM’s post when the new state becomes a reality.

innutshell

TELANGANA
What

Districts: 10 (including Hyderabad)

Area: 1.14 lakh sq km

Population: 3.52 crore

Status report

1. Mostly barren land

2. Hotbed of Maoist activity; shares border with Chhattisgarh

3. Power shortage

Bone of Contention: Hyderabad

Telangana people say Hyderabad is non-negotiable. The rest of AP doesn't want to give up Hyderabad either.

SEEMANDHRA

What

Districts: 13

Area: 1.60 lakh sq km

Population: over 5 crore

Status report

1. Well developed

2. Little Naxal presence

3. Good road and rail network